Every year in early December, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences drops a list that sends shockwaves through Hollywood: the Oscar shortlists. These aren’t the final nominations. But they’re the closest thing we get to a spoiler alert. If your favorite film makes the shortlist in Best Picture, Documentary, or International Feature, you can bet it’s in serious contention for the real thing. And if it doesn’t? Well, that’s usually the end of the road.
What Exactly Is an Oscar Shortlist?
The shortlist is a narrowing-down process. Before the final nominees are announced in January, the Academy invites voting members to watch and rank films in 10 categories. These include Best Picture, Documentary Feature, International Feature, Animated Feature, and several technical awards like Cinematography, Visual Effects, and Sound. For each category, the Academy whittles down the hundreds of eligible entries to just 10 or 15 films. That’s the shortlist.
It’s not a vote. It’s not a nomination. It’s a filter. Think of it like a college admissions committee reviewing thousands of applications and picking 150 to send to the final review panel. Only those 150 get a real shot. The rest? They’re out.
In 2024, for example, 182 films were submitted for Best Picture. Only 15 made the shortlist. Of those 15, 10 ended up as official nominees. That’s a 67% conversion rate. The shortlist isn’t perfect, but it’s the most reliable predictor we have.
Which Categories Matter Most?
Not all shortlists are created equal. Some categories have higher conversion rates than others. Best Picture is the big one. Since 2018, when the number of Best Picture nominees expanded to a maximum of 10, the shortlist has always included all 10 eventual nominees. No exceptions. If a film makes the Best Picture shortlist, it’s almost guaranteed a nomination.
Documentary Feature and International Feature follow a similar pattern. In 2023, 10 of the 15 documentary shortlist entries became nominees. In 2024, it was 9 out of 15. These categories are smaller and more specialized, so the shortlist acts like a final gatekeeper.
But here’s where it gets tricky: technical categories. Sound and Visual Effects shortlists often include films that don’t make the final cut. In 2023, 12 films made the Visual Effects shortlist. Only 5 became nominees. Why? Because voters in these categories are often swayed by spectacle, not substance. A film can have jaw-dropping effects but no real momentum in the bigger races. It gets shortlisted, then falls off.
That’s why you should pay attention to the overlap. If a film like Oppenheimer or The Iron Claw shows up on the Best Picture, Editing, Sound, and Cinematography shortlists, it’s not just a contender-it’s a frontrunner.
How the Shortlist Shapes the Race
The shortlist isn’t just a list. It’s a marketing tool. Studios know this. When a film makes the shortlist, they immediately launch a new wave of campaigns: screeners sent to voters, social media blitzes, interviews with directors and actors, even billboards in LA and New York. The shortlist is the green light to spend big.
Conversely, if your film misses the shortlist, it’s over. No more ads. No more press tours. No more Oscar buzz. The industry moves on. That’s why the shortlist announcement is the most stressful moment for indie studios. One email from the Academy can make or break a film’s entire awards season.
Look at Emilia Pérez in 2024. It was a surprise hit. It didn’t have a huge budget or a major studio behind it. But it made the shortlist in Best Picture, International Feature, and Supporting Actress. Overnight, it went from niche foreign film to Oscar favorite. By nomination day, it had five nominations. The shortlist gave it credibility.
On the flip side, Wicked in 2025 had massive box office success and strong audience buzz. But it didn’t make the Best Picture shortlist. No matter how many people saw it, the Academy didn’t see it as a contender. The shortlist exposed the gap between popularity and prestige.
What the Shortlist Reveals About Academy Voting Patterns
The shortlist tells you what the Academy is thinking before they even vote. It’s a snapshot of the cultural moment. In 2021, when Minari and Sound of Metal made the shortlist, it signaled a shift toward intimate, character-driven stories over big-budget spectacles. In 2023, Everything Everywhere All at Once dominated the shortlist in both major and technical categories-proof that genre films could win on their own terms.
And here’s something you won’t hear on TV: the shortlist often reveals which films are being pushed by key voting blocs. The Directors Branch loves bold, auteur-driven films. The Actors Branch favors emotional performances. The Writers Branch rewards sharp scripts. The shortlist is where these factions reveal their preferences before the final vote.
For example, if a film makes the shortlist in Best Original Screenplay but not Best Picture, it means the writers love it-but the broader membership doesn’t. That’s a red flag. It might not make the final cut.
Conversely, if a film makes the shortlist in Best Picture and Best Actress but not Best Director, it might mean the actors loved the performance but the directors didn’t connect with the vision. That’s a warning sign for the final round.
What to Watch for in the 2025 Shortlists
With the 2025 Oscars just weeks away, the shortlist will drop in mid-December. Here’s what to track:
- Which films are on the Best Picture shortlist? If A Complete Unknown or The Brutalist make it, they’re locked in for nominations.
- Is there a documentary that surprises everyone? Last year, 20 Days in Mariupol came out of nowhere. Keep an eye on smaller, activist-driven films.
- Are any animated films making the cut? Animated Feature is often a dark horse. If The Wild Robot makes it, it could challenge Disney’s dominance.
- Which actors are on multiple shortlists? If an actor shows up in Best Actress, Supporting Actress, and Best Picture, they’re likely a lock for the nomination.
Also, watch for films that appear on the shortlist but don’t have a studio behind them. Those are the underdogs that could pull off an upset. The Academy loves a comeback story.
Why the Shortlist Is More Important Than the Nominations
Most people think the nomination announcement is the big moment. It’s not. The shortlist is.
Why? Because by the time nominations are announced, the race is already decided. The shortlist is where the real voting happens. The final ballot is just a formality. The Academy doesn’t pick nominees from scratch. They pick from the shortlist. That’s why the shortlist is the true predictor.
Think of it this way: the shortlist is the final exam. The nominations are just the report card.
If you’re trying to guess who’ll win Best Picture, don’t wait for January. Watch the shortlist in December. If a film is on it, it’s already halfway to the stage. If it’s not? It’s already forgotten.
The Oscars aren’t about popularity. They’re about perception. And the shortlist is where perception becomes reality.
Do all films that make the Oscar shortlist get nominated?
No, but most do in major categories. For Best Picture, all 10 nominees are always pulled from the 15-film shortlist. In technical categories like Visual Effects or Sound, the conversion rate is lower-sometimes as low as 30-40%. So while a shortlist spot is a strong sign, it’s not a guarantee.
Can a film get nominated without being on the shortlist?
Technically yes, but it’s extremely rare. The shortlist is the only pool from which nominees are selected. If a film doesn’t make the shortlist, it’s not eligible for nomination. The Academy doesn’t go back and pick films that were left out.
Why do some popular films miss the shortlist?
The Academy’s voting body is made up of about 10,000 industry professionals-not the general public. A film can be a box office hit but still feel too commercial, too mainstream, or too lightweight for voters who prioritize artistry over popularity. Wicked in 2025 is a perfect example: huge audience, no shortlist.
How do studios influence which films make the shortlist?
Studios spend millions on targeted campaigns: sending screeners to voters, organizing Q&As, placing ads in industry trades, and lobbying key branch members. It’s not bribery-it’s education. They’re trying to get voters to watch films they might otherwise ignore. That’s why indie films without big campaigns rarely make the shortlist.
Is the shortlist biased toward certain types of films?
Yes. The Academy has historically favored dramas with serious themes, historical settings, or intense performances. Comedies, horror, and pure action films rarely make the shortlist unless they break conventions-like Get Out or Parasite. But recent years show signs of change, especially with genre films gaining more recognition in technical categories.
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